Gasoline prices research paper

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Gasoline prices research paper

The paper is divided into three sections. Section I reviews the causes underlying the recent oil price increase and the outlook for Section III provides a summary and includes a discussion of main policy implications for developed and developing countries.

An Appendix reviews lessons from earlier oil price increases. Since late November, oil prices have fallen back significantly, reflecting both the slowing of global economic activity-which to some degree, of course, itself reflects higher oil prices-and the impact of recent OPEC production increases, resulting in a rising level of stocks.

While oil prices remain highly volatile, if Gasoline prices research paper decline is sustained the recent spike in oil prices would be shorter lived than assumed in the discussion below, and the resulting impact on growth and inflation would be correspondingly less severe.

Recent Developments and Outlook in Oil Markets In October and November, the world oil price averaged over three times higher than its February low, and, excluding the Gulf war period, reached a 15 year high in both real and nominal terms.

In the mids, as the pace of economic expansion picked up so did world demand in general for energy and for oil in particular. The effect on oil prices was muted as oil production largely kept pace with the increase in oil consumption.

In an effort to arrest the decline in the price of oil, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC met on several occasions in and concluded agreements to restrain production.

Prices progressively increased, more than doubling by the end of the year and oil production fell below oil consumption even in the summer period when stocks usually accumulate. Early this year, in an effort to moderate the price increase, OPEC policy reverted to one of periodic increases in production targets.

The recent price rise is the fourth episode of sharp upward movement in the price of petroleum in the past thirty years. So far it is much smaller in terms of magnitude of the terms of trade impact than the first two episodes, but it has outpaced the third see Annex.

In terms of the magnitude of the price change, the first and second oil price shocks, in the mid and lates, respectively, each entailed a more than tripling of the price of oil; and both lasted for about 5 years.

By contrast, the price spike in lasted only about six months and even at its highest point was less than double the price in the preceding period. Current Market Conditions and Near Term Outlook The current market conditions and the near term outlook for oil reflect the interplay of production, stocks and consumption.

Gasoline prices research paper

Over the past two years global economic growth has greatly strengthened-from a rate of 2. As a result, the growth in global oil consumption increased from 0. There are noticeable seasonal patterns in production and in primary consumption cycles of oil.

Peaks for both cycles occur in the fourth quarter of the year, and troughs in the second quarter. Measured stocks of crude oil and products are usually run down near the end of the calendar year when consumers in the northern hemisphere build up their supplies invisible stocks of heating oil for the winter season and visible stocks are rebuilt around the middle of the following year.

In the seasonal accumulation of stocks did not occur because of producers' attempts to curb production at a time when the rate of demand growth was increasing, and it contributed to the doubling of the oil price during the year.

Latest data on production and consumption suggest some replenishment of stocks of oil products in the middle months of this year. However, a strong seasonal demand for gasoline led refineries to bias the mix of their output towards gasoline at the expense of heating oil. The volume of heating oil sold in the United States to final consumers has been 10 to 20 percent higher than in recent years.

As a result, visible stocks of heating oil appear to be low and many market analysts have questioned the extent to which these stocks would cover seasonal demand, especially should the weather in the northern hemisphere be colder than average Figure 2.

For this reason the price of oil this year has been unusually sensitive to weather information and this situation is likely to persist throughout much of the winter. With stocks so low, the market has become highly sensitive to news relating to short term supply changes and much attention is given to the actions and intentions of OPEC.

As in the three previous increases in production targets this year, the new target failed to bring down the price to the upper level of the target range. Recently, however, the concern of many OPEC members has turned to the possibility of "overproduction" should the current tight market conditions ease early next year.

At its regular meeting held on November 12, OPEC decided that production targets should not be increased until the group's meeting in mid-January when they would be reconsidered. In addition, many short-term political developments and problems along the production-consumption chain, which in periods of ample stocks would receive little attention, are adding to price uncertainty.

Recently these have included such diverse matters as Iraq's request for payment in euros rather than dollars; escalation of conflict between Israel and the Palestinians and the threat that this may spill over into actions affecting oil deliveries; blockades of oil terminals by commercial truckers aiming to pressure governments in Europe to cut petroleum taxes; and localized gasoline price spikes in the United States.The Rise In Gasoline Prices Week 3 Research Paper Karl von Busse EG Economics and Change January 8, Page 1 This preview has intentionally blurred sections.

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Gasoline prices research paper

spencer banzhaf. The Problem of Rising Gasoline Prices. The Problem of Rising Gasoline Prices One of the reasons of rising gas prices is Gas prices across the country are being pushed higher by the record cost of crude oil. And crude keeps rising. Oil sold on the New York Mercantile Exchange has spent most of this week trading at about $ per barrel.

However, one recent paper in economics suggests that higher gasoline prices may be a tool for reducing obesity-risk and promoting physical activity.

This study expands and builds upon that research by exploring the relationship between gasoline prices and physical activity among adults and youth, and how that relationship varies across race.

Research Paper Topics; gasoline prices vary depending upon distance between market and refinery and its costs to transport gasoline through pipelines and by tanker-truck. "Gasoline Prices, Fuel Economy, and the Energy Paradox," NBER Working Papers , National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Nathan Wozny & Hunt Allcott, " Gasoline Prices, Fuel Economy, and the Energy Paradox," Meeting Papers , Society for Economic Dynamics.

Gas Prices: Frequently Asked Questions